Comments on: Tis the Season of Predictions

By: Alan Levine aka CogDog

Alan Levine aka CogDog — Mon, 29 Dec 2008 16:44:02 +0000

@Peter Miller- That is the whole premise of the NMC Horizon Reports, which do NOT predict, but forecast on 3 time horizons, 1 year or less, 2-3 years, and 4-5 years out. I am not an expert in Delphi, but understand it is a "modified Delphi process" as spelled out in each edition on Methodology - e.g. http://wp.nmc.org/horizon2008/chapters/methodology/.

By: Peter Miller [SL: Graham Mills]

Peter Miller [SL: Graham Mills] — Mon, 29 Dec 2008 11:51:14 +0000

Actually, the problem with predictions is that most of the analysis takes place 12 months hence when they have only historical interest. Maybe there is a place for applying something akin to the Delphi Method? Do the NMC Horizon reports fall under this heading?

By: Peter Miller [SL: Graham Mills]

Peter Miller [SL: Graham Mills] — Mon, 29 Dec 2008 11:33:37 +0000

Seeing as you ask nicely (and with emphasis on SL and best-case scenario): http://tidalblog.blogspot.com/2008/12/predictions-for-2009.html

By: 2¢ Worth » What do you Hope for in 2009

2¢ Worth » What do you Hope for in 2009 — Mon, 29 Dec 2008 10:16:11 +0000

[...] just scanned CogDog’s piece on making new year predictions (This the Season of Predictions) and have ReadWriteWeb, and Stephen Downes loaded in my queue (see Levine’s blog post for [...]

By: David Weaver

David Weaver — Mon, 29 Dec 2008 00:39:13 +0000

I spend most of my time helping students grok the linearity of Newton, and the bent space of Einstein is (unfortunately) a minor portion of my teaching world.

You dragged me into the WWW in ’93(-ish?) and the admonition to take a couple of LOLCATS grounded me again.

Thanks for your leadership…

By: Alan Levine aka CogDog

Alan Levine aka CogDog — Mon, 29 Dec 2008 00:17:54 +0000

C’mon David, you of all people know linearity went out like decades ago… like Dick and Elvis, eh? Take 2 LOLCATS and don’t call me in the morning.

By: David Weaver

David Weaver — Sun, 28 Dec 2008 23:10:57 +0000

I wished I knew how to read you… (http://tinyurl.com/96fus8)

I keep clicking links in your post and get sidetracked and then I click on a link in that article and go further astray… Is linearity gone?

If so, I’m OK with that, but I am feeling the effects of splintered concentration and post-mental drip…